Benchmark model construction of district building energy demand forecast—A case of public building in Shenzhen

According to the sensitive factor analysis results of public building energy consumption in Shenzhen, establishes the typical building models of hotel, office and commercial buildings in district building energy planning by adopting the statistical analysis method, scenario analysis method and simulation analysis method. Taking the commercial building as an example, describes the establishing process of typical building model in detail. Calibrates the typical building model with the measured monthly energy consumption data, and forecasts the district building energy demand using the calibrated benchmark model. The results show that the monthly error, the annual error and the variance coefficient of mean-squared difference coefficient between the estimated value and measured value of the hotel, office and commercial building benchmark models meet the requirements of relevant standard, and that the method can be used to forecast public building energy consumption at the district level.